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7 SECURITY CLASSIFICATION AUTHORITY 3 DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY OF REPORT : eemeveamron Ppublvegmelease; | DECLASSIFICATION / DOWNGRADING SCHEDULE Cuca tblteaon 1S Unlimited iz ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER(S) 5 MONITORING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER(S) |

NAME OF PERFORMING ORGANIZATION 6d OFFICE SYMBOL | 7a. NAME OF MONITORING ORGANIZATION

(if applicable) Naval Postgraduate School 515) Naval Postgraduate School

t ADDRESS (City, State, and ZIP Code) 70. ADDRESS (City, State, and ZIP Code) Monterey, California 93943-5000 Monterey, California 93943-5000 i

| NAME OF FUNDINGs SPONSORING Go. OFFICES yRISOL 9. PROCUREMENT INSTRUMENT IDENTIFICATION NUMBER ORGANIZATION (if applicable)

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PROGRAM PROJECT TASK ELEMENT NO. NO. NO

|. TITLE (include Security Classification) THE EFFECT OF THE COVARIANCE FACTOR ON THE PROCUREMENT PROBLEM VARIANCE OF NET LEADTIME DEMAND

WORK UNIT ACCESSION NO.

|. PERSONAL AUTHOR(S) | ADAMS, Keith T.

Ja. TYPE OF REPORT) 13b TIME COVERED 14. DATE OF_REPORT (Year, Month, Day) [15 PAGE COUNT Master's Thesis FROM TO 1988 September 44

.. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTATION The views expressed in this thesis are those of the autho

Bnd do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of

Defense: or the U.S. Government.

| COSATI CODES 18 SUBJECT TERMS (Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number) FIELD Covariance, Variance, Standard deviation,

: fT tC CLeadtime, Demand, Repairables, inventory models, |. AP ICP's, Inventory Control Points, Wholesale

. ABSTRACT (Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number) | An analysis is made of the formulae used by the Navy's Inventory Control Points in calculating the variance of Net Leadtime Demand of repairable items. A new formula is then derived, which makes use of actual Icalculations of covariance between regenerations and demands. The resulting variance values derived from the new formula are compared with the variance Ivalues resident on the Navy's Ships Parts Control Center data base and are Ishown to produce lower variances. The new formula is also compared to the Joption path formula to determine which formula produces the smallest Ivariance. The comparison suggests an under-estimation of variance results when the option path with its estimate of the covariance is used. The thesis concludes with recommendations for implementation of the new formula.

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